 | Army Football Update Ridge Nelson and the Dalai Lommer (published authors on scout.com) |
Background
The twelfth and final game of the year matches the Army Black Knights (Sagarin 115, 3-8) and the Navy Mid-Shipmen (Sagarin 79, 4-7) in the greatest rivalry in all of sports. Navy leads the all-time series 55-49-7. This game represents what college athletics should be and all that is good in America. However the last 9 years have been an outright embarrassment for Army. They have been outscored 322-91 and have made every type of error imaginable. In some of these games Army has been able to stay competitive until halftime; others were lost from the onset. Both teams have had disappointing seasons and will look to end on a high note with a victory over their arch-rivals.
Three Weeks Ago
In Philadelphia, Trent Steelman left after the second play of the game and any hopes of Army staying in the game evaporated with his departure.
We had pointed out since Spring Practice that this squad was very small up front and that the larger teams that committed to running between the tackles would run all over Army. To our surprise, none of the larger teams attempted to do this – until this game. After one quarter, the Owls had blasted through the Cadet defense for 151 yards rushing, and 194 by halftime. They finished with 335 yards on the ground on 42 carries, for an average of 8 yards per rush. Bernard Pierce had 157 yards on 21 carries and Matt Brown had 133 yards on 8 carries. QB Chris Coyer was 4 for 5 for 79 yards with a 50 yard TD pass. Army forced only 3 punts.
Without Trent Steelman, the Army Offense could generate very little against the Owls. Angel Santiago is regarded as the Quarterback of the future, but on this day, his inability to throw and his reluctance to pitch the ball to the slot-back resulted in the offense being unable to generate anything positive. Army had 92 yards of total offense in the first half.
Army was much more productive with Max Jenkins at the helm in the second half, however it was more a matter of playing the Owl second and third string than it was his ability.
On a bright note, Raymond Maples had 93 yards on 12 carries and now has 984 yards on the year.
In San Jose, Brandon Rutley had his best game of the year as he ran for 132 yards on 27 carries and caught 8 passes for another 101 yards, as the Spartans beat Navy 27-24.
Navy was limited to 254 yards on 49 attempts. Chris Proctor completed 9 passes on 20 attempts for 90 yards. Navy was only 5 of 14 on 3rd down tries as the Spartans put 8 in the box and forced Navy to throw when it mattered.
What to look for?
For the first time, this game will be played at FEDEX Field in Washington D.C., in what seems to be a very fitting host of this game.
Navy scores 29.9 points a game and is 4th in the country in rushing yards per game @ 313.7 and an average of 5.5 yards per carry. They have fumbled the ball 14 times and lost it 7 times. They allow 29.6 points per game and give up 4.7 yards per rush.
Army is 1st in the nation in rushing with 350.9 yards per game, but they are dead last in passing, averaging a whopping 48 yards with 33 total receptions on the year. The Black Knights average 5.59 yards per carry and they will most likely be the only team to break the 4,000 yards in 2011. Army gives up 28.4 points per game and scores 25.2. They have fumbled the ball 32 times and this has resulted in 19 turn-overs. Finally, they give up 4.92 yards per rush.
Both of these teams have had very disappointing years. Navy’s run in the top 35 teams appears to be over as the last of PJs recruited players are finally leaving the squad. It is not simply the recruiting aspect that Navy has lost, but the coaching as well. For Army, it has been a year of “what if’s” - “What if they did not fumble the ball 3 times a game? What if they had 270 lb defensive linemen? What if they played with a higher degree of composure under pressure on the big stage?”
Navy is a slightly better team in 2011 although there is not a great chasm between the teams as there has been over the past decade. However, Navy is bigger, faster, has better special teams and does not fumble nearly as often. They also come in to this game with a QB, in Proctor, who can gash Army’s porous defense on the ground and in the air.
An Army fan will look at this game and see that when Steelman, Maples, Dixon, Hassin and Brown play, their offense is at its best. All these players will be ready Saturday. Navy’s weakness is their rushing defense, and if Army does not fumble, they should be able to move the ball and score. Of course, we have been saying all season long what Army should be able to do on offense, but with only a few exceptions, they have consistently failed to do it.
On the other side of the ball, Navy should be able to wear down the Cadet defense and score 35 points. The added dimension that Navy has over Army is Proctor, who is not only big and fast, but also can throw effectively. He was 14 for 24 for 132 yards against Air Force earlier in the year.
Neither team punts the ball particularly well (Army 38.24 avg. - Navy 37.45 avg.) and it is always an adventure when they kick a field goal (Army 3/6 - Navy 8/13.)
Army has had a tendency to make a real game-changing mistake that takes them out of an otherwise competitive game. Last year Trent Steelman fumbled going into the end-zone and Wyatt Middleton ran the ball for 98 yards and a touchdown. Obviously, Army must not make the crucial turnover and if they do, they cannot collapse mentally. Of course, we have seen over and over again this season that, when the chips are down and the game is on the line, you can almost guarantee that Army will make that crucial mistake and crumble to pieces.
We think that Army will play as they did against Northwestern. They will move the ball effectively, dominate time of possession and will not lose the turnover battle. Army will put it together for a tremendous victory in our nation’s capitol. Of course, we have absolutely no logical reason to feel this way, but as the late, great New York Mets reliever, Tug McGraw, once said, “Ya gotta belieeeeeeve!!!”
Who is favored?
Navy is favored by 7 points
Final Score –
Army 28 – Navy 27 (predictions 2011, 5-6)
Game will be shown on CBS @ 2:30PM EST.
WRESTLING (7-5): Traveled to Providence Saturday morning and then to Cambridge Saturday afternoon. Army defeated Brown 24-15 and then later in the day upset 25th ranked Harvard, 24-17. Both events were nail-biters. Against Brown, junior Jordan Thome registered a pin at 133 lbs, and three Army wrestlers recorded major decisions. Yearling Ryan Bilyeu (149) lost a tough 12-11 decision. Brown trailed early, but battled back. With two bouts remaining, Army led by only two points, 17-15. But senior Daniel Mills (197) won a major decision and classmate Derek Stanley won 8-2 at Heavyweight to insure the win. Plebe Cole Gracey (165) stopped his opponent, 6-0.
At Harvard Saturday afternoon, each team won 5 of the bouts. When Derek Stanley lost a tough 1-0 decision at 197 lbs, Army led by only one point, 18-17, going into the final Heavyweight bout. The suspense lasted only a minute, as Daniel Mills pinned his Harvard opponent in 56 seconds! -- and Army won, 24-17. Cole Gracey is on a roll! His win at Harvard was his 9th straight.
Army will wrestle at the All-Academy championships next Sunday at the Air Force Academy.
MEN’S BASKETBALL (10-12): Can’t seem to get above .500, but we are playing better than Patriot League coaches predicted at the start of the season – dead last. On Wednesday, at home, Army defeated Holy Cross, 74-68. Army trailed by six with 11 minutes to play, but a 14-0 run sealed the win. Junior forward Jordan Springer made a career-high 18 points, two blocks, and eight rebounds. Ella Ellis was high score for Army with 26 points. On Saturday, playing at Lehigh, Army wasn’t competitive, and we lost, 83-64. We took ourselves out of this one early, shooting 8 for 30 (27%) in the first half, and committing 16 turnovers, which didn’t help either.
Army plays at Bucknell Saturday. They lead the league, and defeated Army at West Point earlier in the season.
WOMEN’S BASKETBALL (10-12): On Wednesday, Army lost to Holy Cross on their court, 62-59. Yearling Jen Hazlett was high score for Army with 18 points. On Saturday at home, Army upset Lehigh, 66-64. Junior Anna Simmons scored a career-high 28 points as Army ran to a 42-26 halftime lead. Lehigh responded and tied the game at 58-58 with five minutes remaining, but Army held on to win. Plebe forward Olivia Schretzman scored 16 for Army.
Bucknell here on Saturday. Army is now tied with Holy Cross and Navy for 3rd place in the Patriot League with 4-3 records. Lehigh remains in 2nd place at 5-2.
HOCKEY (3-15-7): Played home-and-home against Bentley this past weekend. On Friday evening, Bentley routed Army, 6-2. But on Saturday evening at Bentley, Army played perhaps our best game of the season and won, 3-1. Senior Danny Colvin and classmate Mark Dube each scored in the first period to give Army a 2-0 lead. Bentley cut our lead to 2-1 after two, but junior Andy Starczewski notched his team – leading 9th goal in the third period to put the game away.
Royal Military College of Canada here Saturday as we renew this long international rivalry.
SWIMMING/DIVING: Ended the regular season in a triangular meet at Colgate. The Army men defeated Colgate 167-118 and Lafayette, 179-103. The Army men finished the season with a 12-3 won-lost record. Army’s women lost to Colgate, 115-178, but defeated Lafayette, 181.5-114.5. For the year, the Army women had a 6-9-1 record.
TRACK & FIELD: In last weekend’s Saturday Night at the Armory (NY City), Army’s men finished 6th of 13 teams competing. Our women were 9th of 12 teams competing.
At Navy for the Star meet Saturday.
FOOTBALL: Army is scheduled to play Boston College home-and-home in 2012-13. DIA Boo Corrigan recently announced that the 2012 game will be played at West Point rather than at Boston College, and in 2013 we play at Boston College rather than at home. This means we play 7 of 12 games at West Point next season, but only 5 at home in 2013 (The last time we played 7 home games was 1994, a year that we beat Navy but finished 4-7 ).